[SMM Steel Market Morning News] National railways delivered 1.641 billion mt of goods from January to May

★Macro★

01 ★★ [Household Time Deposit Balances and Proportions Hit Recent Highs]

The trend of strengthening "time deposit orientation" among households is evident not only in the month-by-month increase in time deposit balances since the beginning of this year but also in the record-high proportion of time deposits. According to the latest data from the PBOC's balance sheet of credit funds of financial institutions in RMB and foreign currencies, from January to May this year, the time deposit (including other) balances under household deposits increased month by month, reaching 113.9 trillion yuan, 116.42 trillion yuan, 118.45 trillion yuan, 118.78 trillion yuan, and 119.34 trillion yuan, respectively. Regarding the proportion of time deposits in the household sector, it increased MoM in four out of five months, with the exception of a MoM decline in March, and reached a record high at the end of May this year, with proportions of 72.17%, 73.48%, 73.33%, 74.16%, and 74.29%, respectively. Looking back, the proportion of household time deposits was 72.83% at the end of May 2024 and 72.54% at the year-end of 2024.

02 ★★ [National Railways Shipped 1.641 Billion mt of Goods from January to May]

From January to May this year, national railways shipped a cumulative total of 1.641 billion mt of goods, up 3.1% YoY. The daily average number of loaded wagons was 181,000, up 4.2% YoY, providing strong support for the smooth operation of the domestic and international dual circulation and the stable operation of the national economy.

03 ★★ [National General Public Budget Revenue Reached 9,662.3 Billion yuan from January to May]

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9,662.3 billion yuan, down 0.3% YoY. Among this, national tax revenue was 7,915.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY, while non-tax revenue was 1,746.7 billion yuan, up 6.2% YoY. Breaking it down by central and local governments, the central government's general public budget revenue was 4,148.6 billion yuan, down 3% YoY, while local governments' general public budget revenue at the same level was 5,513.7 billion yuan, up 1.9% YoY.

★Industries and Downstream Sectors★

01 ★★★  [SMM May Customs Steel & Billet Export Update]

From January to May, China exported 48.47 million mt of finished steel products, up 9% YoY. Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand were the top three destinations for finished steel exports, with Thailand entering the top three for the first time due to its leading export growth rate. In terms of steel product categories, coated steel, hot-rolled steel, and wire rods were the top three exported products. From January to May, China exported 4.72 million mt of steel billets, up 306% YoY. The Philippines, Indonesia, and Italy were the top three destinations for steel billet exports.

02★★★[SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report] Beware of Fading Macro Sentiment as Steel Prices Fall Back from Highs

This week, the ferrous metals series held up well. This week was a week for domestic and overseas macro data. Early in the week, China released supply and demand data, with the supply side showing strength and industrial production growth at 5.8%. On the demand side, growth rebounded due to the "trade-in" policy and the 618 shopping festival promotions, but growth in real estate and investment pulled back. Towards the end of the week, the US Federal Funds target rate remained at 4.25-4.5%, in line with expectations. Overall, domestic and overseas macro data largely met expectations, with market sentiment more influenced by the rally in commodity prices driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. In the spot market, market sentiment and trading improved in the early part of the week, but overall, terminal procurement remained cautious.

03 ★★ [SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] Futures Continue, Spot Trading Shows Clear Off-Season Effect

On June 20, the combined daily trading volume of HRC among sample enterprises in four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) tracked by SMM was 11,100 mt, up 560 mt or 5.3% MoM. Today, futures continued to rise initially before pulling back, with spot prices up 20 yuan/mt MoM. Futures remained high for a week, but the off-season effect was evident, limiting the increase in daily trading volume.

04 ★★ [Tata Steel Plans to Produce 15 Million mt of Recycled Steel in the Next 10-15 Years]

Tata Steel plans to produce 10-15 million mt of steel through recycling in the next 10-15 years. This move aligns with the company's transition from linear to circular production. In FY2025, Tata Steel produced approximately 30.92 million mt of steel out of its 35 million mt capacity in India, the UK, the Netherlands, and Thailand. The company plans to increase its capacity in India to 40 million mt by 2030. In Europe, Tata Steel intends to completely phase out blast furnaces by 2035.

05 ★★ [China Exported 551,400 mt of Seamless Pipes in May 2025]

Customs data: China exported 551,400 mt of seamless pipes in May 2025, up 11.60% MoM and 28.17% YoY. From January to May 2025, China exported a cumulative 2.4606 million mt of seamless pipes, up 13.65% YoY. In May 2025, China imported 7,800 mt of seamless pipes, up 11.43% MoM but down 17.89% YoY. From January to May 2025, China imported a cumulative 38,700 mt of seamless pipes, down 22.29% YoY. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of seamless pipes were 2.4219 million mt, up 14.50% YoY.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[Austrian Steelmaker Voestalpine Installs New Pickling Line]Austrian technology company Andritz announced the successful completion of the installation of a pickling line for Austrian metallurgical company Voestalpine. The equipment is located at the company's factory in Linz, in the north-west of Austria. The new production line has a capacity of 1.8 million mt per year. The Andritz equipment enables the combination of cold rolling mills and pickling lines. The company's main products are electrical steel for EVs, as well as high-quality cold-rolled steel for the automotive industry, household appliance production, and construction.

⭕[Henan Iron & Steel Group Successfully Achieves Mass Production of Self-Developed Rare Earth Weathering Steel]On June 20th, as the fiery red steel strip roared past, Henan Iron & Steel Group's Anyang Base successfully completed the rolling of the last coil of rare earth weathering steel for the shift, marking the full production of the first batch of over 2,000 mt of rare earth weathering steel ordered for a new energy PV project in western China. This type of steel combines core advantages such as easy formability, corrosion resistance, and low cost, representing another significant breakthrough for Henan Iron & Steel Group in the R&D of green high-end materials.

⭕[Conclusion of Shanghai's Fifth Batch of Land Auctions]On June 20th, with the successful acquisition of the Caolu Science and Education Park plot in Pudong New Area by Lianfa Group, Shanghai's fifth batch of land auctions for the year concluded smoothly. This round of land auctions in Shanghai presented several highlights: not only were plots in core areas highly sought after, but some plots in the suburbs were also favored by real estate developers. Poly Developments not only secured plots in Minhang and Yangpu consecutively, but the Caolu Science and Education Park plot in Pudong New Area, which was the last to be auctioned, became the undeniable "star plot" of this round of land auctions in Shanghai with a high premium rate of 41.68%.